Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a four-week high, topping $117,000 on Wednesday as traders anticipate a key interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Market expectations, as indicated by both the CME FedWatch Tool and the betting market Polymarket, are leaning heavily toward a 96% to 93% probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut. There is a small chance—around 4% to 5%—of a more significant 50-bps reduction. Both tools also suggest the possibility of a total of three rate cuts by the end of the year.
While some analysts believe the market has already factored in the rate cut, the main focus for traders has now shifted to the upcoming speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell, who has hinted at potential rate adjustments due to inflation and labor market conditions, is expected to be closely watched for any shifts in his tone.
Looking at price movements, Bitcoin’s recent climb has put it in a critical position. Crypto analysts note that Bitcoin is now challenging a major resistance zone between $116,500 and $118,000. If Bitcoin can break through and hold above the $118,000 level, it could trigger a move toward $120,000 and potentially new all-time highs above $124,500.
On the other hand, a failure to break this resistance could see the price drop back into its recent trading range of $114,500 to $116,800. A more significant pullback could even test the psychological $112,000 support level.
